Global Coal demand expected to decline in upcoming years: IEA  

Kathmandu: After reaching an all-time high this year, global coal demand is expected to decline to 2026, due to the major expansion or renewables, according to the latest edition of International Energy Agency (IEA) annual coal market report. The report has predicted global coal consumption for the first time. 

The report expects global coal demand to fall by 2.3% by 2026 compared with 2023 levels, even in the absence of governments announcing and implementing stronger clean energy and climate policies. This decline is set to be driven by the major expansion of renewable energy capacity coming online in the three years to 2026.

The report says, global coal demand rising by 1.4% in 2023 due to rising energy demand in emerging and developing economies including India by 8% and China by 5%. 

The report says, consumption is on course to decline sharply in most advanced economies in 2023, including the European Union and United States of around 20% each. Both EU and United States are rely more on oil and natural gas. For instance, oil and natural gas accounted for 36 per cent and 33 per cent of the total energy production in the US in 2022.

More than half of this global renewable capacity expansion is set to occur in China, which currently accounts for over half of the world’s demand for coal. As a result, Chinese coal demand is expected to fall in 2024 and plateau through 2026. 

The projected decline in global demand for coal – which is currently the largest energy source for electricity generation, steelmaking and cement production, but also the largest source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activity – could mark a historic turning point. 

However, global consumption is forecast to remain well over 8 billion tones through 2026, according to the market report. To drive down emissions at a rate consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement, the use of unabated coal would need to fall significantly faster.