Disregarding Hydropower:  An Economic Disaster for Nepal

Background: 
Nepal’s most precious and major natural resources like rivers, and especially water are  poised to be rarer and critically important in the future of mankind. This very natural resource has maintained this earth as a livable place for everyone. Developed country’s reckless extraction and use of natural resources to achieve their never-ending quest for economic growth and development has continued for the past two centuries. There seems to be no indication that the quest would stop anywhere soon in the near future, but would rather accelerate, in the hope of securing the best future for them and theirs. The consequences are global warming induced effects like climate change and associated disasters.

Excessive carbon emissions by the developed and developing countries have rendered the earth as a less livable planet every moment the clock ticks. Understanding this very cause and its implications, a global endeavor to reduce carbon emission by curbing down the usage of fossil fuels like petrol, diesel, gas, coal etc. gradually and finally ending it by promoting the use of more cleaner and alternative energy sources like hydroelectricity, solar, wind, geothermal etc. has started. Numerous conferences and declarations with heavily worded manifestoes has been public for quite a long time. 

Conference of Party (COP) which was initiated in 1995 (as COP1) to explore ways and take mitigative actions to reduce the effects of global warming and climate change has concluded its 28th edition in Dubai in a Grandiose where over 1,000 Nepalese participated at various capacities. A Review of the presentations, and commitments for possible actions is ongoing from various stakeholders globally.

While doing so, over these years all these conferences agreed to a common conclusion that the only plausible and possible way of meeting the climate change mitigation goals is by ending the use of fossil fuels as soon as possible by the replacement through cleaner, greener renewable energy alternatives. These measures are expected to penetrate every sector from households to industry including commercial utilization. 

Nepal's renewable energy ambitions face unique challenges. Wind power struggles on technical grounds, while large-scale solar deployment clashes with crucial needs for agriculture and forest conservation. This leaves hydropower as the primary contender, yet its potential has been hampered by delays in transmission infrastructure, leading to wasted electricity and bleeding-economic effects.

The irony is palpable: with the energy sector attracting astronomical investments, exceedingly even billions, attacks on its development in the guise of environmental protection seem counter-intuitive, almost self-sabotaging. This persistent tendency to undermine progress, akin to the self-harming Kalidas-syndrome, is a key reason for Nepal's non-progress. Breaking free from this syndrome and harnessing the country's renewable potential effectively will be crucial for our future growth.

The main reasons why transmission lines haven't been built on time are many, but the main reasons are the conservative forest laws, regulations, practices, and the ever-increasing complexity and obstacles within them. In such a highly sensitive matter, it is important to understand why these things are happening even though they are against the overall national interest. When it comes to the use of bioenergy and carbon emitted by industries, the total global carbon emission in 2021 was around 37.124 billion tons (https://ourworldindata.org/annual-co2-emissions).

According to the 2021 data, Nepal's carbon emission was around 0.014 billion tons, which accounts for 0.028% of the world's total carbon emission, meaning that 28 out of every 100,000 parts are ours. Nepal itself absorbs most of its carbon emission from its forests, and even though our negative contribution to carbon emission is negligible, we are still suffering the terrible effects of global climate change.

Although small, Nepal's carbon emission are increasing rapidly, and the main reason for this is the increasing use of imported petroleum energy, which the economy cannot even support, until electricity replaces it, this emission is simply unstoppable. There is no doubt that this is increasing, and of course it must be reduced, but until the obstacles to electricity development and transmission are removed, it is not possible for it to decrease. Therefore, obstruction of electricity development for the transmission sake of environmental protection only makes it a futile act that does not give results. Such acts may only provide some opportunity to travel abroad with pride to attend meetings and conferences and talk big, but do not deliver anything to the country.

Major polluters of the globe which emit billions of tons of carbon each year have declared to reduce their carbon emission gradually. China, U S, and India are currently the top three carbon emitters and Nepal is geographically located between two of these giants namely China and India. In order to maintain their economic growth unhindered, China has committed to the carbon net-zero target of 2060 and India has similar commitment for 2070 only. But Nepal, which has, is and will remain among the least polluter has committed to meet carbon net-zero target in 2030-2045. Normally speaking, this is perfect, but ignoring our national economy and desperate need of the people, wildly jumping to mitigate other's serious crime is against the nation and its people.

Nepal has been one of the most brutally harmed country due to climate change which is caused by other's act. Nepal, although not responsible for the causes, but for reasons attributable to developed nations, has been facing flood, erosion and similar water-induced natural disasters which are increasing at an alarming rate while glaciers are melting, and the mountains are running out of snow turning black.

Indeed, in implementation of development activities, weaknesses exist in implementation of environmental mitigation measures and adherence to the laws and regulations, which can be gradually improved.   But simply considering such weaknesses as serious crimes, imposing stringent  Acts/Regulations/Procedures to curb them halting the overall development process of a country is truly not in our national interest. Rs. 50 lakh monthly salary earners of developed countries pat and motivate our Rs. 50 thousand monthly salary earners by saying, "you people are doing great, but still need to do better" for such acts of development hindrance which is in fact against our overall national interest. Those, who are unable to understand how their motivators reached the position of earning Rs. 50 lakh per month and how we got stuck in the position of earning Rs. 50 thousand per month have never paid attention to improving the economy and capacity of our country.

In this way, neglecting the overall responsibility towards our country, being nourished, educated, motivated, and guided by those who are responsible for ruining nature, seeing only "misconduct of nature" in the development of our country and riding with pride in participating in policymaking in other's shoes is the root cause of our problem. What has been achieved for Nepal and Nepalese by being inspired and excited by the happiness, enthusiasm, and inspiration of the international world? If the country's economy had been well-off through carbon trade only, then we would have nothing to say and would make no difference.

But our country is still poor and due to crumbling economy, 1,000-1,500 Nepalese leave the country in search of employment every day.
Now let's look at the statistics to see how much we contribute to spoiling nature. Nepal's comparison with China, United States of America, and India in terms of carbon emissions is as follows: 

Most of the countries with the highest total carbon emissions are large, developed countries. However, even though some countries may have lower total carbon emissions, the countries with the highest per capita carbon emissions in 2016, according to the table below, are the Gulf nations and present-day statistics are more or less similar. These are also the same countries that 1,000 to 1,500 Nepalese land up every day due to our fragile and deteriorating economy. 

China, US, and India prioritized their economy over environment and have said it loud and clear to the world, that they would be emitting carbon till 2060, 2050 and 2070 respectively. Former president of the US, Donald Trump even walked away from “The Paris Agreement” unilaterally citing its provisions being against the interest of US economy.

But here we are in between China and India, voluntarily undertaking responsibility of protecting the global environment by sabotaging our economy, our people, and their livelihood. Our primary responsibility is taking care of our people, which can only be achieved by strengthening our economic capabilities. It’s high time for the state to realize its primary duty and wake up from the daydream of saving earth alone.  

We are ashamed to talk about other's industrialization (pictured left and right, above) having acquired education, training, affiliations, and other support from the major characters of carbon emission, mostly at their expense. We are proud to have been called the global protectors/conservators/contractors of the forest-environment by giving the tag of "misbehavior against nature" to the construction work of our country (pictured in the middle, above). This clearly highlights the cause of our poverty and misfortune.

Bewitching tales of economic grandeur abound across the border, whispered by emissaries in tailored suits and met with eager Nepali eyes, only to dissolve into whispers of disappointment as alms fail to materialize. Yet, in this dance of perpetual supplication, we forget to ask the crucial question: why, when & how they feast, do we merely beg?

Perhaps within their success lies a hidden seed, an economic alchemy we might glean and cultivate in our own fertile soil. Imagine Nepal, not as a mendicant with outstretched palms, but as a sovereign artisan, weaving its own tapestry of prosperity from the golden threads of resourcefulness and ingenuity. But such a transformation demands an awakening, a casting off of the beggar's cloak and an embrace of the builder's tools. Our reliance on foreign benevolence, however alluring, is a banquet upon borrowed plates, vulnerable to sudden withdrawal. True progress, like a sturdy edifice, must be built upon the bedrock of our own economic might.

So, how long will this somnolence persist? As envy of our golden platters grows amongst benefactors, the threat of their snatch/removal looms large. Only by nurturing the seeds of self-reliance within our own gardens can we ensure that any progress, once cultivated, will not wither and fade with the fickle winds of external aid. Nepal is a poor country, and we sometimes feel jealous of rich countries including India and China. Our demand to them generally go in vain resulting in disappointment.

We should be asking ourselves why we are poor, instead of just begging/seeking, we should pay attention to utilize our own resources and intelligence for the sake of our economy and prosperity. Let's see how much longer it will take our government to realize the primary national interest.

The Multidimensional Needs and Impact of Electricity Development

Expanding and developing the generation, transmission, and distribution system of electricity falls squarely within the minimum responsibility of the nation's governing bodies to fulfill the internal needs of the country and its people. Given the abundant potential for electricity development in the country, it would also be in the national interest to further increase production and generate revenue through its export, where possible. In this way, we can substitute import of fossil fuel (petrol, diesel, gas, coal, etc.) and balance our heavy trade deficit, while on the other hand, displacing fossil fuel with renewable energy contributes significantly to our global commitment of reducing carbon emission.

Reducing and ultimately eliminating fossil fuel import is essential for both environmental protection and reducing the trade deficit. But ironically, obstacles are being placed in the way of expanding hydropower, the different renewable energy sources would displace fossil fuel, all in the name of environmental protection. This, in turn, is harming our economy as well as obstructing carbon emission reduction.

The damage we are inflicting on our own electricity development and economy in the name of forest and environmental protection is not only hindering global environmental protection, but is actually harming it, because even now, during times of electricity shortages and in certain seasons, the electricity we import is the very electricity generated by burning coal in India across the border. The less electricity we import, the less coal is burned, and the smoke doesn't stay confined to one side of the border; it spreads everywhere. So what's the benefit?

The extra chunk of forest that we claim to have retained by hindering our power development, absorbs less carbon than that emitted by coal-burning across the border for our electricity-import. Furthermore, if we can produce more hydropower and export it, we can even replace some of the coal/gas-fired electricity in neighboring countries, contributing further to global environmental protection. Therefore, adopting one-sided thinking, ideas, practices, policies, rules, and laws can be detrimental from a holistic and broader national perspective.

Electricity Development, Forest & Environment Concerns, and the Country's Needs

Electricity being a basic need, falls under the government's primary obligation to deliver to its people. Moreover, given the abundant potential for electricity development in the country, it would also be in the national interest to further increase production and generate revenue through its export, where possible. By doing so, we can substitute import of fossil fuel (petrol, diesel, gas, coal, etc.) and balance the trade deficit. Additionally, replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy would significantly contribute to our global commitment to reducing carbon emission.

Trade deficit and the impact of rising fuel import

To understand our situation, capacity, opportunity, and status, let us look at the government data, i.e. statistics of the Customs Department for a while. According to the details of the Customs Department for the FY 2078/79, diesel, petrol, and LPG fall among the top 10 imported goods in Nepal and occupy the position of first three largest imports. Further details are self-explanatory in the chart below.

The table shows that compared to other imports; fuel imports are increasing at a much higher rate than in the previous FY 2077/78. If it continues to increase at this rate, it will be very difficult for the economy to sustain it. This has dual effect; it is exerting immense pressure on foreign exchange reserves, bleeding the economy as well as adversely impacting environmental protection. Remittances that support foreign exchange reserves cannot be a permanent, sustainable, and reliable source, it can falter at any time due to the impact of international economic recession on the international labor market and in such a situation, the country immediately comes under crisis.

The contribution of Nepalese people who are neglected by the state and considered to be of lower status in the country, who have earned and sent sweat from abroad through remittances, should not be undervalued by any section of the state in the economy of this poor country. As soon as the foreign exchange runs out,  imported fossil fuel supply chain will immediately be halted, the country's economy is sure to collapse, as a consequence, all sectors will immediately be disrupted, and crisis ridden.

Therefore, it should be the mandatory duty of all organs of the state to contribute to reducing imports, among which major are fossil fuel. We should timely learn from the clear adverse signs seen in the economy, otherwise we can only pray and hope that God saves us from crisis. 

90% growth rate of fossil fuel imports, while overall import growth rate is 25% as shown in above table should be a subject of attention for the economists of the country. This data is scary enough for one who knows the basics of economy as it is a clear indication of an unbalanced, insecure, and critical economy. These signs are indeed not good for a nation having abundant natural resources with huge potential at its disposal to drive to better economy if utilized properly.  Nepal's rising carbon footprint, fueled by rampant fossil fuel imports, demands immediate action. This dependence drains foreign exchange reserves, threatens environmental stability, and shackles economic growth. The solution lies in harnessing our abundant hydropower potential.

By prioritizing and supporting hydropower development through effective policy tools, we can achieve a triple win: 1) dramatically reduce carbon emission, mitigating climate change and protecting our fragile ecosystem. 2) Enhance energy security and independence, freeing ourselves from the burden of fossil fuel imports and boosting foreign exchange reserves. 3) Empower a robust economy, generating clean energy for domestic consumption and export, driving industrial growth, and creating jobs.

While environmental concerns surrounding hydropower are valid, hindering responsible development projects only postpones the inevitable shift towards clean energy. Instead, let's embrace a balanced approach, implementing stringent environmental safeguards alongside infrastructure development.

The time is now for decisive action – let the government and parliament lead the charge, fostering a harmonious future where environmental protection and economic prosperity go hand in hand, powered by the clean waters of our own rivers.